Climate Change is Real!

This week's eSkeptic featured an article by Dr. Donald Prothero in which he discusses climate change; how we know it occurring, how we know we are causing it, and why people try to deny it. It is overall a good article and he presents many facts so I recommend you read it in its entirety (this link will skip the heading portion of this week's eSkeptic) but I wanted to focus on one thing he said.

“I agree that climate is changing, but I’m skeptical that humans are the main cause, so we shouldn’t do anything.” This is just fence sitting. A lot of reasonable skeptics deplore the “climate denialism” of the right wing, but still want to be skeptical about the cause. If they want proof, they can examine the huge array of data that directly points to humans causing global warming.²⁰ We can directly measure the amount of carbon dioxide humans are producing, and it tracks exactly with the amount of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Through carbon isotope analysis, we can show that this carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming directly from our burning of fossil fuels, not from natural sources. We can also measure oxygen levels that drop as we produce more carbon that then combines with oxygen to produce carbon dioxide. We have satellites in space that are measuring the heat released from the planet and can actually see the atmosphere get warmer. The most crucial proof emerged only in the past few years: climate models of the greenhouse effect predict that there should be cooling in the stratosphere (the upper layer of the atmosphere above 10 km (6 miles) in elevation, but warming in the troposphere (the bottom layer of the atmosphere below 10 km (6 miles), and that’s exactly what our space probes have measured. Finally, we can rule out any other culprits (see above): solar heat is decreasing since 1940, not increasing, and there are no measurable increases in cosmic radiation, methane, volcanic gases, or any other potential cause. Face it—it’s our problem.

I will admit I was at this point for a few years as well but it is the combination of all the evidence that he mentions, along with other pieces of evidence, that eventually made me realize I was wrong. That is how science works and that is why people who are ignoring the science of climate change are wrong.

Explanation of Human Ancestry Made Easy

So a few years ago Potholer54 made a video series pretty much explaining the history of the earth and life and one of those videos was Human Ancestry Made Easy. He apparently got some questions about some of the content. Now I use the term questions loosely here because it is pretty obviously creationists trying to show that evolution doesn't work, even though it does and they are wrong. I think the bigger issue is just the way Potholer54 phrased the statement and he at least tries to explain it here, although I don't think he did a perfect job with it either but he at least got closer.

How do you define a human

AronRa has a new video out defining what exactly a human is. He has previously shown how we are monkeys and apes and this one just helps in the classification more specifically. This is part of his on going Falsifying Phylogeny (see parts 1, 2, 3, and 4) series.

Are GMOs Evil?

This is a question that C0nc0rdance (previous posts showing his videos, here and here) takes up in his newest YouTube video.



This is an important topic because I know plenty of people who are skeptical about many crazy claims but accept that GMOs are always bad. Yes they can be bad but they are not always bad and in the long run we as a moral species have a duty to our fellow humans and when millions of people go to bed hungry or die of starvation every year we have a problem that needs to be fixed.

Religion forces evolution?

The answer is yes at least to some fish in Southern Mexico at least according to a study published recently in Biology Letters. Apparently a religion that predated Columbus' discovery of North America used to more or less create a poison to the fish while praying for a good year rain wise. Well this apparently has created some fish that have become immune to the poison. An article about the paper in ScienceDaily also had this to say:

"The cool thing is that this ceremony has gone on a long time and that the fish responded to it evolutionarily," Tobler says. "Lots of species couldn't live with these changes. It highlights how nature is affected by human activity."

Rosenthal contends that the idea of imposing evolutionary divergence on a species at an extremely localized spatial scale is not a new concept. In fact, he says, it's been happening since the beginning of humankind and that the idea of the "noble savage" is passé.

"We tend to have this wonderful Pocahontas idea that before Europeans came in, everything was pristine and in harmony with nature and that all of the changes in our environment have been post-industrialization," he explains. "No. People have been changing the environment forever."

Whether we want to admit it or not we are part of this planet and we can effect it in many different ways. This is something we must all understand because too often we look at ourselves as better than other animals when we are in fact just another animal. This gets forgotten about especially when it comes to climate change.

Paper Reference
M. Tobler, Z. W. Culumber, M. Plath, K. O. Winemiller, G. G. Rosenthal. An indigenous religious ritual selects for resistance to a toxicant in a livebearing fish. Biology Letters, 2010; DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2010.0663

Social Media and Compiling Data

We all know that social media has changed the way much of the world interacts with each other and, as we saw a couple of years ago with the protests in Iran, it can put a human face on countries and events all over the world. It has also changed the way that human behavior can be looked at. While this article from CNN focuses on the when I want to take a quick look at the how.

Worried about when you might get dumped? Facebook knows.

That's according to a graphic making the rounds online that uses Facebook status updates to chart what time of year people are splitting up.

British journalist and graphic designer David McCandless, who specializes in showcasing data in visual ways, compiled the chart. He showed off the graphic at a TED conference last July in Oxford, England.

In the talk, McCandless said he and a colleague scraped 10,000 Facebook status updates for the phrases "breakup" and "broken up."

Facebook provides the ability to keep track of all of this data and to be able to see trends through times. So not only can we compile data from those who we can physically contact, which will typically lead to one country and possibly just one region of that country but from around the world. Now of course you run into the problem of people lying online or just not posting data but these are difficulties that you have in a typical study anyway and those outliers will tend to be more hidden when you have more data. This is interesting and if people continue to use this idea and developing studies who knows what future trends we might be able to see in the long run.

One last thing, don't be that asshole who breaks up with your significant other on Christmas come on people.

The Hockey League No One Wants To Be In

By now I am sure most people are aware of what is known as the hockey stick graph, the one showing a much lower temperature for the planet till the early 20th century and there has been a huge increase in temperature since. It is easy enough to pass of one line of evidence by saying correlation does not equal causation, and this is how science should work. But science also works by pulling together multiple lines of independent evidence in support of a hypothesis. Skeptical Science has a great post showing that the more famous hockey stick graph is not the only one showing this type of trend.

The original 1998 hockey stick by Mann, Bradley and Hughes didn't prove that humans are causing global warming. The evidence for man-made global warming lies in the multiple lines of empirical evidence finding human fingerprints throughout climate change. But the multitude of hockey sticks (or hockey league) do tell a story - humans have caused a profound disturbance to our climate system. To say "the hockey stick is broken" is to ignore the full body of evidence of hockey sticks throughout climate change.

The article is worth your attention as it shows that it is not just one but many lines of evidence that support the idea that we are in fact changing our own climate.

What to do?

So we all know that this time of year, aka the holidays, bring families together. It has been nice being home and getting to see my family. Over the last few days I have my parent's have had one of my aunts and her son over to visit. And it is nice to see them since I haven't seen them in at least 2 years. My aunt is for the most part conservative but then again so is most of my family but at the same time we are far from religious, although apparently my grandfather is very liberal which made for an interesting situation yesterday when we went to go visit him but that is another story all together. I love my aunt I think she is funny but tonight she said something that disappointed me.

We were watching the TV show The Big Bang Theory, Monday's at 9:30 on CBS, and the intro song mentions human evolution. My aunt said, "I don't believe in human evolution." There was the silence where no one knew what to say or do. One thing is for certain as much as my parent's might not completely understand science they have at least tried and they tend to accept most of the theories, sometimes a little too much against my advising but it has never hurt them. That maybe why both my sister and I have always been interested in science. Anyway this silence lasted for what seems like a couple of minutes but was probably only a few seconds until the next cheesy commercial came on. I will admit I didn't say anything and I probably should have but I tried to make my annoyance known.

So now my question is this: If you were put in the same situation what would you have done? Would you have sat their quietly like my whole family did or would you have said something challenged her or heck maybe you have some sort of middle ground. I just didn't know what to do at the time and just let it slide, since for most things we have very similar thought processes and I don't get to see her very often. I don't know how many people follow this blog but I figured I would ask that question to see if anyone who does read has any suggestions for next time.

Human's the social species.

So anyone who tells you that the final stretch of a semester in graduate school is easy, well that person is lying to you I should be working now but I am taking a break between projects so you get a blog post.

Tonight's post I actually got the idea from the 7/6c episode of Bones on TNT, and yes I am not making any money off of this. Anyway toward the end of the Episode Bones and Booth are talking about the human condition and about how we are in fact always alone as a species. I disagree with this as we will see in a few minutes but I also want to credit another source of the idea for this it is this post by a friend of mine's blog, the main blog can be found here. Toward the end of the post he says this:

Maybe I'm crazy for thinking everyone just wants you to step in line and shut up.

[...]

Meanwhile, I'm going to make this world better than the way it was when I was born. You can either stand up and follow me, or you can stay in line. Your call.

Now most of the rest of his post has nothing really to do with what I want to say here. They question I want to ask is why do humans seem to care so much about what other people think? Why do we care about fashion and other aspects that cause us to "fit in"?

This is where I want to refer back to the Bones episode. Yes each of us is our own person but we are shaped by those around us in fact we care more about their opinion than we do what we think of ourselves most of the time. When my friend argues that he wants people to follow him he is, probably unknowingly, saying that he does not want to be alone. None of us do! We are a social species we evolved that necessity. When we were evolving and living in the wild we did not have the physical ability to defend for ourselves we are very vulnerable. Look at yourself in the mirror sometime you don't have any killer claws, no extremely sharp teeth and for our size we are extremely weak.

So what does all this have to do with fashion? Well if in the wild everyone was moving out to a new location to look for food you would probably follow because everyone else was going not knowing that you are really going to use them as a form of protection. So the extension to fashion is that since everyone else is doing it we don't want to be left out from what the masses are doing in order to allow for "protection" of ourselves, after all we wouldn't want to be "eaten".

So next time someone tells you that each person is an individual think long and hard. Do you think the way you think because it just popped in there or did what people say/teach you cause you to think the way you did. All of our experiences change the way we think and our actions. And every person is effected by everyone they meet whether it is for good or for bad.

Please feel free to rip me a new one for my blindless conjecture, yes I have no supporting evidence and normally I am big on this but I will admit that I am just making conjecture here, or you can agree with me. I welcome all.