Crazy March

By now most people probably know that NOAA has said that March 2012 was the warmest March on record, well if you are wondering why Greenman3610 has a great two part video series, below, explaining why.

Climate Change is Real!

This week's eSkeptic featured an article by Dr. Donald Prothero in which he discusses climate change; how we know it occurring, how we know we are causing it, and why people try to deny it. It is overall a good article and he presents many facts so I recommend you read it in its entirety (this link will skip the heading portion of this week's eSkeptic) but I wanted to focus on one thing he said.

“I agree that climate is changing, but I’m skeptical that humans are the main cause, so we shouldn’t do anything.” This is just fence sitting. A lot of reasonable skeptics deplore the “climate denialism” of the right wing, but still want to be skeptical about the cause. If they want proof, they can examine the huge array of data that directly points to humans causing global warming.²⁰ We can directly measure the amount of carbon dioxide humans are producing, and it tracks exactly with the amount of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Through carbon isotope analysis, we can show that this carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is coming directly from our burning of fossil fuels, not from natural sources. We can also measure oxygen levels that drop as we produce more carbon that then combines with oxygen to produce carbon dioxide. We have satellites in space that are measuring the heat released from the planet and can actually see the atmosphere get warmer. The most crucial proof emerged only in the past few years: climate models of the greenhouse effect predict that there should be cooling in the stratosphere (the upper layer of the atmosphere above 10 km (6 miles) in elevation, but warming in the troposphere (the bottom layer of the atmosphere below 10 km (6 miles), and that’s exactly what our space probes have measured. Finally, we can rule out any other culprits (see above): solar heat is decreasing since 1940, not increasing, and there are no measurable increases in cosmic radiation, methane, volcanic gases, or any other potential cause. Face it—it’s our problem.

I will admit I was at this point for a few years as well but it is the combination of all the evidence that he mentions, along with other pieces of evidence, that eventually made me realize I was wrong. That is how science works and that is why people who are ignoring the science of climate change are wrong.

Mini Ice Age?

Again the answer is NO! and in the video below Greenman3610 lets the experts explain why, along with pointing out the distortion and lies put forth about it. I know 2 climate change videos/posts in one day I am asking for it aren't I.

Its all the Sun's Fault!

Anyone who has had a discussion with people who deny that humans are causing climate change has surely heard this one before, even if the person doesn't believe the climate is actually changing they will find a way to work in a, "Well even if it is it is all the sun's fault anyway!" There is no doubt as a geologist that the sun is the largest driving force behind climate and this can be traced back through geologic time. The question then becomes well if in the past the sun caused climate change, although not always just the sun itself sometime with the help of how the earth was rotating the sun (we can discuss this at a later date if you want), is the sun doing stuff now that could be causing climate change? The simple answer is NO but I will let Greenman3610 take it from here.

Drought and Climate Change

Another great video by Greenman3610 talking about how climate change is effecting the drought that is destroying agriculture in much of Texas right now.

The "BEST" Climate Data

I have been quite busy this month and don't expect that to slow down any time soon but I will try to get a few posts together before I leave town for a few days early next week. Anyway I am sure most of you have heard that the UC Berkeley team released their climate data earlier this week and, shocking to no one but the climate change denialists, it feel in line with all previous climate change data. Greenman3610 was quick to put out a video to show this and it is up to his normal quality.

2011 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

So it appears we have reached the sea ice minimum for 2011 and it is depressingly low, close to the record low of 2007. Greenman3610 has a video wrapping up the sea ice minimum for the year.



Below the fold is a video by NASA explaining the importance of Arctic sea ice, I figured 2 videos in one post on my main page would probably slow down the page loading too much

A Single Data Point!

Every winter it seems that the climate denialists bring out the but it's cold argument and while I have covered it before (see here, here, and here) I wanted to point out why it is not a valid argument against global climate change. I was inspired to do this based on a recent post over at Conservapedia which said the following [source]:

Global Warming Update: Cooling Trend Continues. March 2011 is on record as the coldest in 15 years. [14]

I saw that post and said, "so?" but I realized that many people who read Conservapedia, then again I doubt many people who read Conservapedia read my blog, might not realize that one month being colder isn't important.

The problem with one cold month is that it is only one data point. Global climate change is based on a build up of data that spans decades of research. One or two colder than normal months out of decades do not influence the data to a great degree nor should they be considered proof of the end of climate change, these are what are typically referred to as weather. What Conservapedia and the climate change denialists are doing are cherry picking data. I can do the same thing, as a resident of Lubbock, TX I know last month was hot in fact there was a least one day that we set a new record high. What is more is that the National Weather Service agrees with me and therefore that link that conservapedia posted is completely wrong March was one of the top 15 warmest months on record for the area and therefore their view that global warming is not happening is wrong, and the fact that Texas is in a severe drought means that the whole state is going to run out of water forever (sorry I wanted to find a way to get that link in a post somewhere).

It doesn't work that way, in fact even 2010 being tied for the warmest on record isn't, by itself, important. What is important is the long term trends like the graph to the left which shows over the long term the temperatures have been increasing globally, from Wikipedia. If you go to NASA's climate change website you can see all of the data accumulated thus far showing that climate change is in fact happening. Climate scientists might even actually expect 2011 to be much cooler than 2010 (I don't know that they do this was more just an example), but this will not pronounce climate change dead but will in fact just say that temperatures will vary year to year in the same way that temperature varies day to day. These individual variations are not important again it will always be colder in January than in July in the northern hemisphere and some places will always see snow. What is important is the long term trend, this is what scientists are interested in and this is what they look at. As summarized here, yes I know it is Wikipedia but the summary is good, you can see that of the 20 warmest years the vast majority in the upper half are in the last decade, and here you can see that the last 3 decades have been the warmest decades with each being warmer than the last. That sort of information is important and how climate change is decided not, well it was cold today we should stop worrying.

But it's cold!!!

I return to Lubbock from Pittsburgh and the low the next morning was in the single digits with a negative wind chill, that means that global warming is false right? Well I have stressed this point enough that most of my readers should know that obviously that is not true. Anyway here is a more humorous video explaining the difference than the last time I used this title.